In both the primary and many of the ancillary criteria that determine buy/sell signals, interest rate projections play an important role. Whenstocks are priced at reasonable or discounted levels relative to historical fundamental norms, lowering interest rates can have a strong positive effect. Conversely, especially when stocks are overvalued relative to fundamentals, higher interest rates can be shown to have a very negative effecton stock pricing.
The effect on bonds (and bond funds) resulting from interest rate changes are more straightforward than stock pricing relationships because the effect on stocks at any given time depends on stock price levels. The effect on bonds is direct: Lower rates create higher bond prices, and higher rates result in lower bond prices. The effect of rate changes on bond prices can be more dramatic than many investors realize, with the greater price shifts associated with longer maturities. Read the rest of this entry »
Currency swap: Contract that commits two counterparties to exchange streams of interest payments in different currencies for an agreed period of time and to exchange principal amounts in different currencies at a pre-agreed exchange rate at maturity.
A currency swap has three stages:
An initial exchange of principal: the two counterparties exchange principal amounts at an agreed exchange rate. This can be a notional exchange since its purpose is to establish the principal amounts as a reference point for the calculation of interest payments and the re-exchange of the principal amounts.
Exchange of interest payments on agreed dates based on outstanding principal amounts and agreed fixed interest rates.
- Re-exchange of the principal amounts at a predetermined exchange rate so the parties end up with their original currencies.
- Again this may be done to hedge risk, to speculate on changes in exchange rates, or to attempt to lower the cost of borrowing by borrowing in the currency in which the most favourable interest rates are available and then swapping into the currency that the firm needs to carry out its business. Whether this will be cheaper will depend among other things on the bid—offer spread.
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A eurobond is a debt security handled internationally by syndicates, groups of bankers and/or brokers who underwrite and distribute new issues of securities or large blocks of outstanding issues. It is typically in bearer (non-registered form) and is issued outside the country of the currency in which it is denominated.
Borrowers and lenders are spread around the world, while the intermediaries are spread across Europe, with the majority of business being done from London. The market was founded in the early 1960s and has provided a competitive source of funding for borrowers who can tap discreet but important sources of finance. Japanese banks, pension funds and insurance companies have become important lenders in recent years and there are still plenty of wealthy individuals who prefer the anonymity offered by bearer securities. The eurobond market is the world’s second largest securities market after the US bond market in terms of trading volume and the third largest after the US and Japanese bond markets in terms of debt outstanding. Read the rest of this entry »
A major defence industry supplier, Death Mines plc, wishes to borrow £1 million for twelve years at a fixed interest rate to finance a new investment project. It could do so by issuing a straight eurobond but, as it is not well known in the market and does not have a high credit risk rating, would have to pay a coupon of 8 per cent which it regards as too high. The firm’s own bank is willing to lend Death Mines the required amount via a one-year floating rate note at a rate of 2 per cent over LIBOR, currently at 3.6 per cent.
Clearly, the floating rate loan is much cheaper at the moment, but LIBOR could easily rise over the period of the loan to such a level that Death Mines would finish up losing on the project. Thus, it enters into a contract with a swap bank, Border International, to pay to it 5 per cent on the principal, receiving in exchange LIBOR.
The position of Death Mines now is:
Pays to its own bank LIBOR + 2 per cent
Pays to Border 5 per cent
Receives from Border LIBOR
Net position — fixed rate loan at 7 per cent Read the rest of this entry »
The swap terms available to the insurance company are as follows:
- Every six months the life insurance company will pay LIBOR.
- Every six months the life insurance company will receive 8.40%.
What has this interest-rate contract done for the bank and the life insurance company? Consider first the bank. For every six-month period for the life of the swap agreement, the interest-rate spread will be as follows: Read the rest of this entry »
So far we have merely described an interest-rate swap and looked at its characteristics. Here we illustrate how they can be used in asset/liability management. Other types of interest-rate swaps have been developed that go beyond the generic or “plain vanilla” swap described and we describe these later.
An interest-rate swap can be used to alter the cash flow characteristics of an institution’s assets so as to provide a better match between assets and liabilities. The two institutions we use for illustration are a commercial bank and a life insurance company. Read the rest of this entry »
Corporations can customize medium-term notes for institutional investors who want to make a market play on interest rate, currency, and/or stock market movements. That is, the coupon rate on the issue will be based on the movements of these financial variables. A corporation can do so in such a way that it can still synthetically fix the coupon rate. This can be accomplished by issuing an MTN and entering into a swap simultaneously. MTNs created in this way are called structured MTNs. Read the rest of this entry »
Valuing Caps and Floors
The arbitrage-free binomial model can be used to value a cap and a floor. This is because, as previously explained, a cap and a floor are nothing more than a package or strip of options. More specifically, they are a strip of European options on interest rates. Thus to value a cap the value of each period’s cap, called a caplet, is found and all the caplets are then summed. The same can be done for a floor.
To illustrate how this is done, we will once again use the binomial interest-rate tree to value an interest rate option. Consider first a 5.2%, three-year cap with a notional amount of $10 million. The reference rate is the one-year rates in the binomial tree. The payoff for the cap is annual.
Exhibit 25-12 shows how this cap is valued by valuing the three caplets. The value for the caplet for any year, say year X, is found as follows. First, calculate the payoff in year X at each node as either zero if the one-year rate at the node is less than or equal to 5.2%, or the notional principal amount of $10 million times the difference between the one-year rate at the node and 5.2% if the one-year rate at the node is greater than 5.2%
Then, the backward induction method is used to determine the value of the year X caplet. Read the rest of this entry »
An interest-rate agreement is an agreement between two parties whereby one party, for an upfront premium, agrees to compensate the other at specific time periods if a designated interest rate, called the reference rate, is different from a predetermined level. When one party agrees to pay the other when the reference rate exceeds a predetermined level, the agreement is referred to as an interest-rate cap or ceiling. The agreement is referred to as an interest-rate floor when one party agrees to pay the other when the reference rate falls below a predetermined level. The predetermined interest-rate level is called the strike rate.
The terms of an interest-rate agreement include
- The reference rate
- The strike rate that sets the ceiling or floor
- The length of the agreement
- The frequency of settlement
- The notional principal amount
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Here we review some of the terminology used in the swaps market and explain how swaps are quoted. The date that the counterparties commit to the swap is called the trade date. The date that the swap begins accruing interest is called the effective date, and the date that the swap stops accruing interest is called the maturity date.
Although our illustrations assume that the timing of the cash flows for both the fixed-rate payer and floating-rate payer will be the same, this is rarely the case in a swap. In fact, an agreement may call for the fixed-rate payer to make payments annually but the floating-rate payer to make payments more frequently (semiannually or quarterly). Also, the way in which interest accrues on each leg of the transaction differs, because there are several day-count conventions in the fixed-income markets. Read the rest of this entry »
There are two ways that a swap position can be interpreted: (1) as a package of forward/ futures contracts, and (2) as a package of cash flows from buying and selling cash market instruments.
Package of Forward Contracts Consider the hypothetical interest-rate swap described earlier to illustrate a swap. Let’s look at party X’s position. Party X has agreed to pay 10% and receive six-month LIBOR. More specifically, assuming a $50 million notional principal amount, X has agreed to buy a commodity called six-month LIBOR for $2.5 million This is effectively a six-month forward contract in which X agrees to pay $2.5 million in exchange for delivery of six-month LIBOR. If interest rates increase to 11%, the price of that commodity (six-month LIBOR) is higher, resulting in a gain for the fixed-rate payer, who is effectively long a six-month forward contract on six-month LIBOR. The floating-rate payer is effectively short a six- month forward contract on six-month LIBOR. There is therefore an implicit forward contract corresponding to each exchange date. Read the rest of this entry »
In an interest-rate swap, two parties (called counterparties) agree to exchange periodic interest payments. The dollar amount of the interest payments exchanged is based on a predetermined dollar principal, which is called the notional principal amount. The dollar amount that each counterparty pays to the other is the agreed-upon periodic interest rate times the notional principal amount. The only dollars that are exchanged between the parties are the interest payments, not the notional principal amount. In the most common type of swap, one party agrees to pay the other party fixed-interest payments at designated dates for the life of the contract. This party is referred to as the fixed-rate payer. The other party, who agrees to make interest rate payments that float with some reference rate, is referred to as the floating-rate payer. The frequency with which the interest rate that the floating-rate payer must pay is called the reset frequency. Read the rest of this entry »
Earlier we provided two interpretations of a swap: (1) a package of futures/forward contracts, and (2) a package of cash market instruments. The swap spread is determined by the same factors that influence the spread over Treasuries on financial instruments (futures/forward contracts or cash) that produce a similar return or funding profile. As we explain subsequently, the key determinant of the swap spread for swaps with maturities of five years or less is the cost of hedging in the Eurodollar CD futures market. For longer maturity swaps, the key determinant of the swap spread is the credit spreads in the corporate bond market. Read the rest of this entry »
Once the swap transaction is completed, changes in market interest rates will change the payments of the floating-rate side of the swap. The value of an interest rate swap is the difference between the present value of the payments of the two sides of the swap. The three-month LIBOR forward rates from the current Eurodollar CD futures contracts are used to (1) calculate the floating-rate payments and (2) determine the discount factors at which to calculate the present value of the payments.
To illustrate this, consider the three-year swap used to demonstrate how to calculate the swap rate. Suppose that one year later, interest rates change as shown in Columns (4) and (6) in Exhibit 25-9. Column (4) shows the current three-month LIBOR. In Column (5) are the Eurodollar CD futures prices for each period. These rates are used to compute the forward rates in Column (6). Note that the interest rates have increased one year later since the rates in Exhibit 25-9 . Read the rest of this entry »
A total return swap in the fixed-income market is a swap in which one party makes periodic floating-rate payments to a counterparty in exchange for the total return realized on a reference obligation or a basket of reference obligations. A total return payment includes all cash flows that flow from the reference obligations as well as the capital appreciation or depreciation of those reference obligations. When the reference obligation is a bond market index, the swap is referred to as a total return index swap.
The party that agrees to make the floating payments and receive the total return is referred to as the total return receiver; the party that agrees to receive the floating payments and pay the total return is referred to as the total return payer.
Notice that in a total return swap, the total return receiver is exposed to both credit risk and interest-rate risk. For example, the credit risk spread can decline (resulting in a favorable price movement for the reference obligation), but this gain can be offset by a rise in the level of interest rates. Read the rest of this entry »
Finally, the structure of the currency markets may work against elimination of the forward rate bias. Note that the forward rates depend only on the spot rate and the difference in interest rates. For arbitrage reasons, the forward rate cannot depend on anything else (see the discussion of interest rate parity in “Description,” above). However, an exchange rate between two currencies reflects the relative state of the two economies. If the U.S. economy is expected to do better than the Japanese economy, then the spot exchange rate will reflect that. Any changes in growth expectations will promptly cause a change in the spot exchange rate and thereby in the forward exchange rate. For example, the dollar strengthened from 1995 to 2000 because of the relative strength of the U.S. economy. During 2002 and early part of 2003, when expectations about U.S. economic growth were constantly revised downward, the dollar kept losing ground to other currencies. Read the rest of this entry »
There are several reasons for the persistence of the forward rate bias. Arbitrageurs or other smart traders may not be able to trade on the forward rate bias due to transaction costs and risk of taking positions. Second, arbitrageurs may be wary of the forward rate bias due to the absence of a logical explanation. Third, limits on arbitrage exist, as currency markets are very large. Finally, the forward rate bias will continue to persist probably due to the structure of currency markets. Each reason for persistence is discussed in turn.
There is general consensus based on the evidence presented above that the forward rate is biased and a poor predictor of the future spot rate. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on February 9th, 2008 in IMF | 2 Comments »
Whatever the explanation for the forward rate bias and whatever the reason for its persistence, we hope that the forward rate bias will continue to exist well into the future. Armed with this evidence, how can tradable profits be realized? The easiest way to trade the forward rate bias is to use currency futures. Futures contracts can be easily bought or short-sold, are easy to cancel, and have low trading costs. On the other hand, forward contracts are restrictive and difficult to cancel. The pricing of forward contracts and futures contracts is almost identical, so the trading profits will also be equivalent. The trading strategy consists of buying the currency with the highest interest rate and unwinding the position a month later. A one-month holding period is chosen because the forward rate bias is most prominent for shorter periods. The following steps are taken in choosing and executing the strategy. Read the rest of this entry »
