In both the primary and many of the ancillary criteria that determine buy/sell signals, interest rate projections play an important role. Whenstocks are priced at reasonable or discounted levels relative to historical fundamental norms, lowering interest rates can have a strong positive effect. Conversely, especially when stocks are overvalued relative to fundamentals, higher interest rates can be shown to have a very negative effecton stock pricing.

The effect on bonds (and bond funds) resulting from interest rate changes are more straightforward than stock pricing relationships because the effect on stocks at any given time depends on stock price levels. The effect on bonds is direct: Lower rates create higher bond prices, and higher rates result in lower bond prices. The effect of rate changes on bond prices can be more dramatic than many investors realize, with the greater price shifts associated with longer maturities. Read the rest of this entry »