The trade press within the industry where the commodity is important fans the fires of demand. Insiders begin to speculate. Word spreads to the financial community and press quickly. Sooner or later, the mass media carries a story. That’s when the average investor bids for a piece of the action, which usually signals a blow-off top. Prices crash.
At several points along the rocky road from bust to boom and back again, excellent trading opportunities present themselves. A technical trader watching a flat or stagnant price chart notices a slight uptrend. Perhaps the long-term downtrend line drawn earlier on the chart was penetrated. Or it might be a fundamental trader with informed contacts within the industry in question who hears talk of shortages, sees inventories decline, or notices price movements. This stimulates him or her to call some distributors, check import-export data, shipments, etc.—all the links in the chain from production to end use. Read the rest of this entry »
The interest-rate swap was developed in late 1981. By 1987, the market had grown to more than $500 billion (in terms of notional principal amount). What is behind this rapid growth? As our asset/liability application earlier demonstrated, an interest-rate swap is a quick way for institutional investors to change the nature of assets and liabilities or to exploit any perceived capital market imperfection. The same applies to borrowers such as corporations, sovereigns, and supranationals.
In fact, the initial motivation for the interest-rate-swap market was borrower exploitation of what were perceived to be “credit arbitrage” opportunities because of differences between the quality spread between lower- and higher-rated credits in the U.S. and Eurodollar bond fixed-rate market and the same spread in these two floating- rate markets. Basically, the argument for swaps was based on a well-known economic principle of comparative advantage in international economics. Read the rest of this entry »
Finally, the structure of the currency markets may work against elimination of the forward rate bias. Note that the forward rates depend only on the spot rate and the difference in interest rates. For arbitrage reasons, the forward rate cannot depend on anything else (see the discussion of interest rate parity in “Description,” above). However, an exchange rate between two currencies reflects the relative state of the two economies. If the U.S. economy is expected to do better than the Japanese economy, then the spot exchange rate will reflect that. Any changes in growth expectations will promptly cause a change in the spot exchange rate and thereby in the forward exchange rate. For example, the dollar strengthened from 1995 to 2000 because of the relative strength of the U.S. economy. During 2002 and early part of 2003, when expectations about U.S. economic growth were constantly revised downward, the dollar kept losing ground to other currencies. Read the rest of this entry »
There are several reasons for the persistence of the forward rate bias. Arbitrageurs or other smart traders may not be able to trade on the forward rate bias due to transaction costs and risk of taking positions. Second, arbitrageurs may be wary of the forward rate bias due to the absence of a logical explanation. Third, limits on arbitrage exist, as currency markets are very large. Finally, the forward rate bias will continue to persist probably due to the structure of currency markets. Each reason for persistence is discussed in turn.
There is general consensus based on the evidence presented above that the forward rate is biased and a poor predictor of the future spot rate. Read the rest of this entry »
Nearly all of the mutual fund families offer multiple funds that are geared toward international investing. The different kinds of funds can be categorized into index funds, international funds, regional funds, country funds, emerging market funds, and global funds. International mutual funds have higher expense ratios than domestic mutual funds to cover higher trading costs and higher management fees. The funds also tend to have redemption fees to control frequent trading. Examples of funds offered by major mutual fund companies are given below.
* Index funds. These include Fidelity Spartan International Index Fund, Vanguard Developed Markets Stock Index, Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index, and Price International Equity Index Fund.
* International funds. These funds do not invest in the domestic market. Funds include Fidelity International Growth, T. Rowe Price International, Fidelity Overseas, Vanguard International Growth, Fidelity Diversified International, and so on.
* Global funds. These funds invest in all countries, including the domestic market, and include Templeton World, GT Global Worldwide, Dreyfus Global, Vanguard Global Equity, Price Global Stock, and so on. Read the rest of this entry »
Given the previous commandment, I would be the last person to predict the market’s direction in the coming years. What seems reasonably safe to assume, however, is that we will see a market that reflects the fast-changing, world-shaking events of our era. I don’t believe I’m going out on a limb when I suggest that the market is going to be full of surprises, that stocks everyone believed would do well will experience sudden downturns and stocks that no one had high expectations for will become big winners. Funds that have performed well for years will slide down a notch and turn in mediocre performances, and a little-known fund will become the hottest one on the Street. Read the rest of this entry »
