Posted on February 9th, 2008 in IMF | 3 Comments »
Whatever the explanation for the forward rate bias and whatever the reason for its persistence, we hope that the forward rate bias will continue to exist well into the future. Armed with this evidence, how can tradable profits be realized? The easiest way to trade the forward rate bias is to use currency futures. Futures contracts can be easily bought or short-sold, are easy to cancel, and have low trading costs. On the other hand, forward contracts are restrictive and difficult to cancel. The pricing of forward contracts and futures contracts is almost identical, so the trading profits will also be equivalent. The trading strategy consists of buying the currency with the highest interest rate and unwinding the position a month later. A one-month holding period is chosen because the forward rate bias is most prominent for shorter periods. The following steps are taken in choosing and executing the strategy. Read the rest of this entry »
What if a stock has run out of steam and we’re anticipating a period of consolidation or lower volatility for a period of time? What if we have identified a range-bound stock and we want to take advantage of this price pattern behavior? We can achieve this by trading low-risk, high-reward options strategies! The two strategies we’ll discuss in this chapter are the Butterfly and the Condor, both of which produce profits provided the price remains within a certain price range, determined by the Exercise prices we select.
Butterflies
The Butterfly involves the following steps (you can use all calls or all puts with the Butterfly—you cannot mix the two):
Butterfly with Calls
Step 1 Buy 1 lower strike (ITM) call
Step 2 Sell 2 middle strike ATM calls
Step 3 Buy 1 higher strike (OTM) call
There are two key points here:
- The ratio between buying the ITM call, selling the ATM calls, and buying the OTM call is 1:2:1.
- The distance between the three adjacent strikes must be equal, with the middle strike being ATM or as close to ATM as possible.
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Delta The speed of a Straddle’s position accelerates dramatically Near the Money. Delta is
negative when the stock price is very low and accelerates into,a positive value when the stock price is nearer and above the strike price. This shows us that when the stock price is lower than the strike price, further down movement is profitable, and when the stock price is higher than the strike price, continued up movement is required from the stock to make the Straddle profitable. Delta’s profile is somewhat “S’ shaped. Delta will generally be less than one (for one contract) when the stock price is ATM. This signifies that at that point, the value of the Straddle will vary with the stock price, but at a reduced speed.
Gamma Gamma is always positive with a long Straddle and peaks where delta is rising at its
steepest angle. This invariably occurs Near the Money, indicating that the Straddle is very sensitive to swings in the stock price at these levels.
Theta Time decay affects the Straddle detrimentally. Theta assumes a “V” shape and is almost
entirely negative, forming its trough At the Money. This makes total sense because with a long Straddle you are buying two options premiums and are heavily exposed to time decay. Where the stock price is far lower than the Straddle strike price, theta can have a fractional positive value.
Vega Vega is entirely positive and forms a mountain-top shape, peaking At the Money. With the
vega value peaking ATM this indicates to us that a small increase in volatility is going to increase the value of our Straddle position markedly. Read the rest of this entry »
Delta Delta peaks in between the two strike prices (i.e. near the money)—notice the difference
between the one-month Delta profile and the one-week delta profile. This shows us that small movements in the underlying stock price at these levels will have a more dramatic impact on the value of the Bull Put position. Delta becomes much more sensitive as time decays. This means that the Bull Put risk profile itself becomes much more sensitive as time decays. This is because Time Value is depleting to negligible levels, and so the stock movement is being followed almost exclusively by Intrinsic Value at these levels. Notice that as the stock price veers away from the money (on both sides), Delta is hardly sensitive at all and that the most sensitive Delta action is occurring close to the two strike prices.
Gamma The acceleration and deceleration of Delta is reflected in the Gamma values. As you would expect, Gamma peaks in positive territory where the stock is just below the lower strike price and troughs into negative territory where the stock is just above the higher strike price. Read the rest of this entry »
