In both the primary and many of the ancillary criteria that determine buy/sell signals, interest rate projections play an important role. Whenstocks are priced at reasonable or discounted levels relative to historical fundamental norms, lowering interest rates can have a strong positive effect. Conversely, especially when stocks are overvalued relative to fundamentals, higher interest rates can be shown to have a very negative effecton stock pricing.
The effect on bonds (and bond funds) resulting from interest rate changes are more straightforward than stock pricing relationships because the effect on stocks at any given time depends on stock price levels. The effect on bonds is direct: Lower rates create higher bond prices, and higher rates result in lower bond prices. The effect of rate changes on bond prices can be more dramatic than many investors realize, with the greater price shifts associated with longer maturities. Read the rest of this entry »
Two things must be kept in mind when establishing a long position in this kind of hedge. First, since Treasury bond futures contractsrepresent face value of $100,000 worth of Treasury bonds, the investor will want to go long approximately $100,000 worth of closed-end bondfunds. When it comes to trading closed-end bond funds, I do not recommend buying more than 2000 or 3000 shares of a single fund for a short-term trade. That is why we would go long several different closed-end funds, representing positions of from $31,000 to $34,000 and amounting to approximately $100,000. That $100,000 long position offset the short position of 1 September U.S. Treasury bond futures contract at 100.18, priced at a 7.943 yield.
On February 10, 1978, with the Dow Jones Bond Average down to 89.79, two significant changes had taken place since we established our theoretical long and short positions: (1) The long positions in the bond funds had become profitable, and (2) so had the short position in the Treasury bond futures contract. For example, JHS was selling at 175/8, up from 167A; DBF was up to 165/8 from 161/2; and PAI had gone from 135/8 to 1334. The net asset values of all three funds had declined but the discounts, as predicted, narrowed more than the decline in net asset values, resulting in the profits. Read the rest of this entry »
In the common stock investment techniques, the most obvious hedging strategy might be to be long the stocks that are relatively discounted and sell short those that appear most overpriced. However, the process is not so simple.
Because of the composition of the Master List, the stocks as a group tend to do significantly better than the market as a whole. Consequently, although the long positions have significantly outperformed the broadly based market, the short positions, if sold, will likely provide lesser returns than the overall market.
It is because of the Master List’s positive bias that in hedging accounts Drach utilizes writing index call options as a substitute for the short side. This substitution both eliminates the effect of the Master List’s upside bias that would be experienced in attempting to short Master List stocks and provides added profitability for the short side because of premium capture. As discussed in Chap. 9, the method of going long the selected Master List issues and proportionately shorting (selling) index call options is a lethargic process, which has so far produced a constant annualized return of about 15 percent irrespective of overall market conditions. Read the rest of this entry »
A eurobond is a debt security handled internationally by syndicates, groups of bankers and/or brokers who underwrite and distribute new issues of securities or large blocks of outstanding issues. It is typically in bearer (non-registered form) and is issued outside the country of the currency in which it is denominated.
Borrowers and lenders are spread around the world, while the intermediaries are spread across Europe, with the majority of business being done from London. The market was founded in the early 1960s and has provided a competitive source of funding for borrowers who can tap discreet but important sources of finance. Japanese banks, pension funds and insurance companies have become important lenders in recent years and there are still plenty of wealthy individuals who prefer the anonymity offered by bearer securities. The eurobond market is the world’s second largest securities market after the US bond market in terms of trading volume and the third largest after the US and Japanese bond markets in terms of debt outstanding. Read the rest of this entry »
Let’s illustrate the mechanics of a standard single-name credit default swap. Assume that the reference entity is the ABC Corporation and the reference obligation is the ABC Subordinated Debenture due 2110. The swap premium—the payment made by the protection buyer to the protection seller —is 550 basis points. If a credit event occurs, the protection seller pays the protection buyer the notional amount of the contract. In our illustration, we will assume that the notional amount is $10 million.
The notional amount is not the par value of the reference obligation. For example, suppose that a bond issue is trading at 73.53 (par value being 100). If a portfolio manager owns $13.6 million par value of the bond issue and wants to protect the current market value of $10 million (approximately equal to 73.53% of $13.6 million), then the portfolio manager will want a $10 million notional amount. If a credit event occurs, the portfolio manager will deliver the $13.6 million par value of the bond and receive a cash payment of $10 million. Read the rest of this entry »
Here we review some of the terminology used in the swaps market and explain how swaps are quoted. The date that the counterparties commit to the swap is called the trade date. The date that the swap begins accruing interest is called the effective date, and the date that the swap stops accruing interest is called the maturity date.
Although our illustrations assume that the timing of the cash flows for both the fixed-rate payer and floating-rate payer will be the same, this is rarely the case in a swap. In fact, an agreement may call for the fixed-rate payer to make payments annually but the floating-rate payer to make payments more frequently (semiannually or quarterly). Also, the way in which interest accrues on each leg of the transaction differs, because there are several day-count conventions in the fixed-income markets. Read the rest of this entry »
There are two ways that a swap position can be interpreted: (1) as a package of forward/ futures contracts, and (2) as a package of cash flows from buying and selling cash market instruments.
Package of Forward Contracts Consider the hypothetical interest-rate swap described earlier to illustrate a swap. Let’s look at party X’s position. Party X has agreed to pay 10% and receive six-month LIBOR. More specifically, assuming a $50 million notional principal amount, X has agreed to buy a commodity called six-month LIBOR for $2.5 million This is effectively a six-month forward contract in which X agrees to pay $2.5 million in exchange for delivery of six-month LIBOR. If interest rates increase to 11%, the price of that commodity (six-month LIBOR) is higher, resulting in a gain for the fixed-rate payer, who is effectively long a six-month forward contract on six-month LIBOR. The floating-rate payer is effectively short a six- month forward contract on six-month LIBOR. There is therefore an implicit forward contract corresponding to each exchange date. Read the rest of this entry »
Earlier we provided two interpretations of a swap: (1) a package of futures/forward contracts, and (2) a package of cash market instruments. The swap spread is determined by the same factors that influence the spread over Treasuries on financial instruments (futures/forward contracts or cash) that produce a similar return or funding profile. As we explain subsequently, the key determinant of the swap spread for swaps with maturities of five years or less is the cost of hedging in the Eurodollar CD futures market. For longer maturity swaps, the key determinant of the swap spread is the credit spreads in the corporate bond market. Read the rest of this entry »
Once the swap transaction is completed, changes in market interest rates will change the payments of the floating-rate side of the swap. The value of an interest rate swap is the difference between the present value of the payments of the two sides of the swap. The three-month LIBOR forward rates from the current Eurodollar CD futures contracts are used to (1) calculate the floating-rate payments and (2) determine the discount factors at which to calculate the present value of the payments.
To illustrate this, consider the three-year swap used to demonstrate how to calculate the swap rate. Suppose that one year later, interest rates change as shown in Columns (4) and (6) in Exhibit 25-9. Column (4) shows the current three-month LIBOR. In Column (5) are the Eurodollar CD futures prices for each period. These rates are used to compute the forward rates in Column (6). Note that the interest rates have increased one year later since the rates in Exhibit 25-9 . Read the rest of this entry »
A total return swap in the fixed-income market is a swap in which one party makes periodic floating-rate payments to a counterparty in exchange for the total return realized on a reference obligation or a basket of reference obligations. A total return payment includes all cash flows that flow from the reference obligations as well as the capital appreciation or depreciation of those reference obligations. When the reference obligation is a bond market index, the swap is referred to as a total return index swap.
The party that agrees to make the floating payments and receive the total return is referred to as the total return receiver; the party that agrees to receive the floating payments and pay the total return is referred to as the total return payer.
Notice that in a total return swap, the total return receiver is exposed to both credit risk and interest-rate risk. For example, the credit risk spread can decline (resulting in a favorable price movement for the reference obligation), but this gain can be offset by a rise in the level of interest rates. Read the rest of this entry »
An investor who lends funds by purchasing a bond issue is exposed to three types of credit risk: (1) default risk, (2) credit spread risk, and (3) downgrade risk.
Traditionally, credit risk is defined as the risk that the issuer will fail to satisfy the terms of the obligation with respect to the timely payment of interest and repayment of the amount borrowed. This form of credit risk is called default risk. If a default does occur, this does not mean the investor loses the entire amount invested because the investor can expect to recover a portion of the investment. Read the rest of this entry »
