Since almost all closed-end funds tend to sell at a discount, it can appear obvious that there is no reason to purchase closed-end funds when they are selling at a premium. Sometimes a special feature, for example, a closed-end fund having a private placement in its portfolio which is about to go public as a hot issue, may justify purchase at a premium. Otherwise, it is difficult to make a case for paying a price higher than NAV.
Central to the advantages of closed-end funds is the discount; both as to dividends and as to pricing variances. Read the rest of this entry »
In the published common stock portfolio modeling the Continuous Full Investment portfolio models were included to function as a control to allow objective comparisons with the market timing models.
Although intended as a control, allowing demonstration of the validity of the timing technique, the Continuous Models have significantly outperformed the broadly based popularized market averages. The reasons for this superior performance are twofold. First, the rigid requirements for stocks to qualify for the Master List results in the stocks comprising the Continuous Models to be of usually superior fundamental quality, thereby giving the group an upward bias relative to the overall market. Second, the Continuous Models change positions in a gradual, relatively slow process in which new positions are selected that are among the most discounted (low-priced relative to the others) on the list. In effect, a rotational process adds those that have become more discounted and deletes those less discounted. Read the rest of this entry »
In the common stock investment techniques, the most obvious hedging strategy might be to be long the stocks that are relatively discounted and sell short those that appear most overpriced. However, the process is not so simple.
Because of the composition of the Master List, the stocks as a group tend to do significantly better than the market as a whole. Consequently, although the long positions have significantly outperformed the broadly based market, the short positions, if sold, will likely provide lesser returns than the overall market.
It is because of the Master List’s positive bias that in hedging accounts Drach utilizes writing index call options as a substitute for the short side. This substitution both eliminates the effect of the Master List’s upside bias that would be experienced in attempting to short Master List stocks and provides added profitability for the short side because of premium capture. As discussed in Chap. 9, the method of going long the selected Master List issues and proportionately shorting (selling) index call options is a lethargic process, which has so far produced a constant annualized return of about 15 percent irrespective of overall market conditions. Read the rest of this entry »
Currency swap: Contract that commits two counterparties to exchange streams of interest payments in different currencies for an agreed period of time and to exchange principal amounts in different currencies at a pre-agreed exchange rate at maturity.
A currency swap has three stages:
An initial exchange of principal: the two counterparties exchange principal amounts at an agreed exchange rate. This can be a notional exchange since its purpose is to establish the principal amounts as a reference point for the calculation of interest payments and the re-exchange of the principal amounts.
Exchange of interest payments on agreed dates based on outstanding principal amounts and agreed fixed interest rates.
- Re-exchange of the principal amounts at a predetermined exchange rate so the parties end up with their original currencies.
- Again this may be done to hedge risk, to speculate on changes in exchange rates, or to attempt to lower the cost of borrowing by borrowing in the currency in which the most favourable interest rates are available and then swapping into the currency that the firm needs to carry out its business. Whether this will be cheaper will depend among other things on the bid—offer spread.
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A major defence industry supplier, Death Mines plc, wishes to borrow £1 million for twelve years at a fixed interest rate to finance a new investment project. It could do so by issuing a straight eurobond but, as it is not well known in the market and does not have a high credit risk rating, would have to pay a coupon of 8 per cent which it regards as too high. The firm’s own bank is willing to lend Death Mines the required amount via a one-year floating rate note at a rate of 2 per cent over LIBOR, currently at 3.6 per cent.
Clearly, the floating rate loan is much cheaper at the moment, but LIBOR could easily rise over the period of the loan to such a level that Death Mines would finish up losing on the project. Thus, it enters into a contract with a swap bank, Border International, to pay to it 5 per cent on the principal, receiving in exchange LIBOR.
The position of Death Mines now is:
Pays to its own bank LIBOR + 2 per cent
Pays to Border 5 per cent
Receives from Border LIBOR
Net position — fixed rate loan at 7 per cent Read the rest of this entry »
The swap terms available to the insurance company are as follows:
- Every six months the life insurance company will pay LIBOR.
- Every six months the life insurance company will receive 8.40%.
What has this interest-rate contract done for the bank and the life insurance company? Consider first the bank. For every six-month period for the life of the swap agreement, the interest-rate spread will be as follows: Read the rest of this entry »
So far we have merely described an interest-rate swap and looked at its characteristics. Here we illustrate how they can be used in asset/liability management. Other types of interest-rate swaps have been developed that go beyond the generic or “plain vanilla” swap described and we describe these later.
An interest-rate swap can be used to alter the cash flow characteristics of an institution’s assets so as to provide a better match between assets and liabilities. The two institutions we use for illustration are a commercial bank and a life insurance company. Read the rest of this entry »
Finally, the structure of the currency markets may work against elimination of the forward rate bias. Note that the forward rates depend only on the spot rate and the difference in interest rates. For arbitrage reasons, the forward rate cannot depend on anything else (see the discussion of interest rate parity in “Description,” above). However, an exchange rate between two currencies reflects the relative state of the two economies. If the U.S. economy is expected to do better than the Japanese economy, then the spot exchange rate will reflect that. Any changes in growth expectations will promptly cause a change in the spot exchange rate and thereby in the forward exchange rate. For example, the dollar strengthened from 1995 to 2000 because of the relative strength of the U.S. economy. During 2002 and early part of 2003, when expectations about U.S. economic growth were constantly revised downward, the dollar kept losing ground to other currencies. Read the rest of this entry »
In addition, the composition of equity funds changed during the 1990-2000 period. According to Strategic Insight, broader investment objectives such as growth and growth & income experienced a decrease of 7.7 percentage points in share of equity funds during the decade. The decrease was offset by an increase in more specialized funds, with higher management fees, such as sector funds and international funds. In particular, emerging market and country funds went from a half-percent share of funds 110P available in 1990 to almost 3% in 2000. At the same time, there was a substantial increase in lower management fee products such as index funds, which were almost nonexistent in 1989.
2. Number of funds During the 1990s, fund choices grew alongside assets at a rapid pace as the number of mutual funds increased from around 3,000 to over 8,000.
Implications of this tremendous increase in the number of funds for management fees depend on the resulting trends in average and median fund size, as shown in Table 2 (which defines a fund to include each class of a multi-class fund). Read the rest of this entry »
Here the problem is lusting after a given investment even before it has proven its worth. For many reasons, people get it in their heads that a stock or fund is going to take off, and they buy too much too quickly. It is like falling in love at first sight. Suddenly, they have a singular focus and ignore everyone and every thing besides this one object of lust.
For instance, you subscribe to an investment newsletter, and you swear by it. In recent months, it has been right on the money with its recommendations, and it seems as if the newsletter author has the inside track on the market. Perhaps you recall George Gilder and hi Gilder Technology Report. People made a great deal of money in the late 1990s investing in the tech companies Gilder recommended. In fact, hi; picks were like self-fulfilling prophecies: If George picked it, the stock would invariably rise. Of course, by late 2000 just about all the tech stocks went down and people who took Gilder’s recommendations as gospel lost a lot of money. Read the rest of this entry »
Certain types of investing seem to trigger anger in certain investors, and if you’re vulnerable to this sin, you should do everything possible to avoid these types. Specifically, don’t:
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SEEK HIGHLY VOLATILE, MICROCAP STOCK INVESTMENTS
Read the rest of this entry »
