In the common stock investment techniques, the most obvious hedging strategy might be to be long the stocks that are relatively discounted and sell short those that appear most overpriced. However, the process is not so simple.
Because of the composition of the Master List, the stocks as a group tend to do significantly better than the market as a whole. Consequently, although the long positions have significantly outperformed the broadly based market, the short positions, if sold, will likely provide lesser returns than the overall market.
It is because of the Master List’s positive bias that in hedging accounts Drach utilizes writing index call options as a substitute for the short side. This substitution both eliminates the effect of the Master List’s upside bias that would be experienced in attempting to short Master List stocks and provides added profitability for the short side because of premium capture. As discussed in Chap. 9, the method of going long the selected Master List issues and proportionately shorting (selling) index call options is a lethargic process, which has so far produced a constant annualized return of about 15 percent irrespective of overall market conditions. Read the rest of this entry »
Valuing Caps and Floors
The arbitrage-free binomial model can be used to value a cap and a floor. This is because, as previously explained, a cap and a floor are nothing more than a package or strip of options. More specifically, they are a strip of European options on interest rates. Thus to value a cap the value of each period’s cap, called a caplet, is found and all the caplets are then summed. The same can be done for a floor.
To illustrate how this is done, we will once again use the binomial interest-rate tree to value an interest rate option. Consider first a 5.2%, three-year cap with a notional amount of $10 million. The reference rate is the one-year rates in the binomial tree. The payoff for the cap is annual.
Exhibit 25-12 shows how this cap is valued by valuing the three caplets. The value for the caplet for any year, say year X, is found as follows. First, calculate the payoff in year X at each node as either zero if the one-year rate at the node is less than or equal to 5.2%, or the notional principal amount of $10 million times the difference between the one-year rate at the node and 5.2% if the one-year rate at the node is greater than 5.2%
Then, the backward induction method is used to determine the value of the year X caplet. Read the rest of this entry »
This is a counterintuitive commandment. Normally, when the market experiences a significant downward trend, people sell off some of their holdings or even get out completely. Vanity makes it hard for people to face their portfolio’s decline in value. Anger with the market makes them want to get out. Instead, these down periods are opportunities to invest a bit more than normal.
In moments of doubt, consider these facts: The Dow dipped below 8,000 after 9/11/01, but then rose to over 10,700 within six months. At the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003, the Dow went below 7,400 and was over 10,000 by the end of the year.
The market is more resilient than anyone thinks during the times when it reaches its nadir. Time and again, it has bounced back, and you want to be invested in it when it springs upward.
