In the published common stock portfolio modeling the Continuous Full Investment portfolio models were included to function as a control to allow objective comparisons with the market timing models.
Although intended as a control, allowing demonstration of the validity of the timing technique, the Continuous Models have significantly outperformed the broadly based popularized market averages. The reasons for this superior performance are twofold. First, the rigid requirements for stocks to qualify for the Master List results in the stocks comprising the Continuous Models to be of usually superior fundamental quality, thereby giving the group an upward bias relative to the overall market. Second, the Continuous Models change positions in a gradual, relatively slow process in which new positions are selected that are among the most discounted (low-priced relative to the others) on the list. In effect, a rotational process adds those that have become more discounted and deletes those less discounted. Read the rest of this entry »
In the common stock investment techniques, the most obvious hedging strategy might be to be long the stocks that are relatively discounted and sell short those that appear most overpriced. However, the process is not so simple.
Because of the composition of the Master List, the stocks as a group tend to do significantly better than the market as a whole. Consequently, although the long positions have significantly outperformed the broadly based market, the short positions, if sold, will likely provide lesser returns than the overall market.
It is because of the Master List’s positive bias that in hedging accounts Drach utilizes writing index call options as a substitute for the short side. This substitution both eliminates the effect of the Master List’s upside bias that would be experienced in attempting to short Master List stocks and provides added profitability for the short side because of premium capture. As discussed in Chap. 9, the method of going long the selected Master List issues and proportionately shorting (selling) index call options is a lethargic process, which has so far produced a constant annualized return of about 15 percent irrespective of overall market conditions. Read the rest of this entry »
Currency swap: Contract that commits two counterparties to exchange streams of interest payments in different currencies for an agreed period of time and to exchange principal amounts in different currencies at a pre-agreed exchange rate at maturity.
A currency swap has three stages:
An initial exchange of principal: the two counterparties exchange principal amounts at an agreed exchange rate. This can be a notional exchange since its purpose is to establish the principal amounts as a reference point for the calculation of interest payments and the re-exchange of the principal amounts.
Exchange of interest payments on agreed dates based on outstanding principal amounts and agreed fixed interest rates.
- Re-exchange of the principal amounts at a predetermined exchange rate so the parties end up with their original currencies.
- Again this may be done to hedge risk, to speculate on changes in exchange rates, or to attempt to lower the cost of borrowing by borrowing in the currency in which the most favourable interest rates are available and then swapping into the currency that the firm needs to carry out its business. Whether this will be cheaper will depend among other things on the bid—offer spread.
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A eurobond is a debt security handled internationally by syndicates, groups of bankers and/or brokers who underwrite and distribute new issues of securities or large blocks of outstanding issues. It is typically in bearer (non-registered form) and is issued outside the country of the currency in which it is denominated.
Borrowers and lenders are spread around the world, while the intermediaries are spread across Europe, with the majority of business being done from London. The market was founded in the early 1960s and has provided a competitive source of funding for borrowers who can tap discreet but important sources of finance. Japanese banks, pension funds and insurance companies have become important lenders in recent years and there are still plenty of wealthy individuals who prefer the anonymity offered by bearer securities. The eurobond market is the world’s second largest securities market after the US bond market in terms of trading volume and the third largest after the US and Japanese bond markets in terms of debt outstanding. Read the rest of this entry »
A major defence industry supplier, Death Mines plc, wishes to borrow £1 million for twelve years at a fixed interest rate to finance a new investment project. It could do so by issuing a straight eurobond but, as it is not well known in the market and does not have a high credit risk rating, would have to pay a coupon of 8 per cent which it regards as too high. The firm’s own bank is willing to lend Death Mines the required amount via a one-year floating rate note at a rate of 2 per cent over LIBOR, currently at 3.6 per cent.
Clearly, the floating rate loan is much cheaper at the moment, but LIBOR could easily rise over the period of the loan to such a level that Death Mines would finish up losing on the project. Thus, it enters into a contract with a swap bank, Border International, to pay to it 5 per cent on the principal, receiving in exchange LIBOR.
The position of Death Mines now is:
Pays to its own bank LIBOR + 2 per cent
Pays to Border 5 per cent
Receives from Border LIBOR
Net position — fixed rate loan at 7 per cent Read the rest of this entry »
As you read through the descriptions of the sins and the accompanying monologues, it’s likely that you had an inkling of the ones to which you are most vulnerable. You may have found one or more than one, seeing your own investing behaviors in the descriptions. While it’s important to be aware of all seven sins—most of us fall victim to all of them during the course of an investing lifetime—pinpointing the sins that are most likely to hurt your investing performance is key. To help in doing this, I keep a journal of my trading activity. In the journal, I note where and when I first heard of a particular company, what research I did into it, the reasons behind my decision to buy it (or not buy it), why I sold it, and so on.
To help you pinpoint your vulnerabilities, I’m going to list some common investing mistakes and the specific sins that catalyze these mistakes. As you’ll see, more than one sin can cause some mistakes, so you won’t always find a one-on-one relationship between mistake and sin. Still, this exercise will help you hone in on your vulnerabilities, narrowing the list down from seven to one, two, or three. Read the rest of this entry »
The good news about this investing sin is that you have a number of ways to reduce its negative impact. Here are some steps you can take to reduce your gluttony and find a more healthy balance between active trading and watchful waiting:
A. Reserve 5 to 10 percent of your portfolio for aggressive trading.
Just as a diet isn’t designed to eliminate all food—or even all junky food—a good regimen for the investing glutton isn’t to cut trading entirely. For whatever reason, you enjoy and need the action of buying and selling. What you don’t need is for this need to eat away at your portfolio. Therefore, reserve a small percentage to feed this habit. If you only actively trade 100 shares instead of 1,000, you probably won’t do much damage.
Remember, though, that this 10 percent high-end percentage is absolute! Invariably, a time will come when the actively traded 10 percent will be performing well, and the inner glutton’s voice will say, “Don’t be a sucker; you’re a much better investor now than before; up the percentage to 20 percent?’ Do not heed this voice. It is the same voice the dieter hears after losing ten pounds, the voice that says, “Another slice of chocolate cake won’t hurt you? Read the rest of this entry »
For all the seven sins, the goal is to keep your emotions in check when making investment decisions, but it is especially important here. Anger flares up faster than any of the other sins and it can be so powerful that before you know it, you’ve made an ill-advised investment. Besides the previous recommendations, here are some proactive steps that can keep Your anger out of the process:
- FORCE YOURSELF TO TAKE BREAKS FROM THE INVESTMENT WORLD IN GENERAL AND YOUR PORTFOLIO IN PARTICULAR
The more you immerse yourself in an investing mindset, the angrier you’re likely to get, especially if things aren’t going your way. Rubbing your nose in your own mistakes or the market’s unpleasant surprises for hours every day will just raise your hackles. As a long-term investor, you don’t need to be tracking your stocks nonstop or be up on every market development. While I strongly advocate being aware of events that have an impact on your portfolio, you can maintain this awareness by monitoring it every few days or by spending just a little time on it daily. Reducing your exposure to the investing world will reduce your aggravation. You will be less likely to blow your stack or your investment dollars from the accumulated pain associated with nonstop market monitoring. Read the rest of this entry »
Gluttons are addicts, only instead of being hooked on food they cravethe action of trading. While people who eat a lot may grow large, people who invest a lot often see their portfolios shrink. This type of investor sells bad stocks in the hope of finding good ones and sells good performers in the hope of finding better ones. Read the rest of this entry »
