Two things must be kept in mind when establishing a long position in this kind of hedge. First, since Treasury bond futures contractsrepresent face value of $100,000 worth of Treasury bonds, the investor will want to go long approximately $100,000 worth of closed-end bondfunds. When it comes to trading closed-end bond funds, I do not recommend buying more than 2000 or 3000 shares of a single fund for a short-term trade. That is why we would go long several different closed-end funds, representing positions of from $31,000 to $34,000 and amounting to approximately $100,000. That $100,000 long position offset the short position of 1 September U.S. Treasury bond futures contract at 100.18, priced at a 7.943 yield.
On February 10, 1978, with the Dow Jones Bond Average down to 89.79, two significant changes had taken place since we established our theoretical long and short positions: (1) The long positions in the bond funds had become profitable, and (2) so had the short position in the Treasury bond futures contract. For example, JHS was selling at 175/8, up from 167A; DBF was up to 165/8 from 161/2; and PAI had gone from 135/8 to 1334. The net asset values of all three funds had declined but the discounts, as predicted, narrowed more than the decline in net asset values, resulting in the profits. Read the rest of this entry »
Let’s illustrate the mechanics of a standard single-name credit default swap. Assume that the reference entity is the ABC Corporation and the reference obligation is the ABC Subordinated Debenture due 2110. The swap premium—the payment made by the protection buyer to the protection seller —is 550 basis points. If a credit event occurs, the protection seller pays the protection buyer the notional amount of the contract. In our illustration, we will assume that the notional amount is $10 million.
The notional amount is not the par value of the reference obligation. For example, suppose that a bond issue is trading at 73.53 (par value being 100). If a portfolio manager owns $13.6 million par value of the bond issue and wants to protect the current market value of $10 million (approximately equal to 73.53% of $13.6 million), then the portfolio manager will want a $10 million notional amount. If a credit event occurs, the portfolio manager will deliver the $13.6 million par value of the bond and receive a cash payment of $10 million. Read the rest of this entry »
Finally, the structure of the currency markets may work against elimination of the forward rate bias. Note that the forward rates depend only on the spot rate and the difference in interest rates. For arbitrage reasons, the forward rate cannot depend on anything else (see the discussion of interest rate parity in “Description,” above). However, an exchange rate between two currencies reflects the relative state of the two economies. If the U.S. economy is expected to do better than the Japanese economy, then the spot exchange rate will reflect that. Any changes in growth expectations will promptly cause a change in the spot exchange rate and thereby in the forward exchange rate. For example, the dollar strengthened from 1995 to 2000 because of the relative strength of the U.S. economy. During 2002 and early part of 2003, when expectations about U.S. economic growth were constantly revised downward, the dollar kept losing ground to other currencies. Read the rest of this entry »
Is your advisor or broker honest with you about his motivation and how he is compensated? Beware of brokers who try and sell you that their superior performance and low annual fees will more than compensate you for a 5 percent upfront charge. You should not pay a load or sales charge when buying a mutual fund, but people routinely do.
Similarly, steer clear of advisors who use “soft dollar” commissions to pay for their bills. These commissions encourage advisors to trade your account and create more revenue for their firms. Finally, run from brokers and advisors who push their own in-house funds. They are given incentives to push these funds without regard to their fees or performance. This doesn’t mean that all in-house funds are bad, only that these brokers and advisors are not always considering if they’re the best investments for you.
Sloth can cause you to give any of these advisors a pass or fail to realize what they’re up to. You may also lust after advisors with great reputations and who offer promises of incredible performance, overlooking their fees or questionable tactics. The best way to honor your financial advisor is by choosing one whose only fee is based on a fixed percentage of the assets you have under management and evaluate this individual based on comparisons with a reasonable benchmark. Read the rest of this entry »
This is a counterintuitive commandment. Normally, when the market experiences a significant downward trend, people sell off some of their holdings or even get out completely. Vanity makes it hard for people to face their portfolio’s decline in value. Anger with the market makes them want to get out. Instead, these down periods are opportunities to invest a bit more than normal.
In moments of doubt, consider these facts: The Dow dipped below 8,000 after 9/11/01, but then rose to over 10,700 within six months. At the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003, the Dow went below 7,400 and was over 10,000 by the end of the year.
The market is more resilient than anyone thinks during the times when it reaches its nadir. Time and again, it has bounced back, and you want to be invested in it when it springs upward.
Sloth is often a function of time. It may be that you don’t have the hours or don’t want to put in the hours necessary to be a good investor. That’s fine. Though there is a minimum amount of work every investor needs to do, you must find the right investing mode given the hours you are willing to expend. Your sloth may result from being in the wrong mode; you’re trying to do it yourself when you really should be relying on a money manager. The three modes, therefore, are:
- Doing it yourself
- Focusing on mutual funds
- Using a money manager
Read the rest of this entry »
To help you manage the three secondary sins just mentioned as well as the seven major ones, I’ve put together a list of ten things you should and should not do. They compliment the sins, in that they are action items as opposed to “warnings.” Just as the ten commandments of biblical fame suggest ways to avoid the seven sins, these commandments function in a similar manner. Keeping a list of these commandments handy next to a list of the sins should provide you with the model you need to maintain your virtuous investment path.
Let’s look at each commandment and how to obey it:
- Thou shall not convert thy neighbor’s investment
- Thou shall not make a killing
- Know thy investments better than thou know thyself
- Thou shall not make unto thee a graven image of profits
- Thou shall not take the name of the Lord in vain or issue nay foul-tempered oaths while investing
- Thou shall not commit adultery chasing some thy little stock of the moment
- Honor they mother, thy father, and the market in good times and bad
- Thou shall not steal from thyself by forgetting about taxes
- Thou shall not worship false idols or deceitful financial advisors
Lazy and indifferent investors need to force themselves to pay attention to their investments. If they just tell themselves that they’ll try and pay more attention, they are likely to fail. Typically, a slothful investor will experience an investing loss and vow to pay more attention and become more diligent. He may even make an effort to do so for a while, but the odds are that he’ll slip back into his old behaviors if his investments return to their normal performance. Investing laziness is a habit that’s tough to break, which is why my recommendation is to establish a new routine.
Here are the behaviors that you should incorporate into this routine:
1. SET UP AN E-MAIL ALERT
If you are managing your money yourself and buying individual stocks, this e-mail alert will automatically and regularly provide you with the earnings release of the companies you own. I monitor my personal holdings through a Yahoo! Finance page that tracks all my stocks and allows me to view headlines and news stories from the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, and other financial publications. Read the rest of this entry »
