Pricing
When buying or selling either an open-end or closed-end fund, an investor usually knows the current value of the fund’s assets per share (NAV).
For example, to buy an open-end fund with a NAV of $15, an investor pays $15 per share. The fund simply issues new shares to the investor at the current NAV. The assets the fund manages have increased, but the value per share remains the same because the new shares have exactly the same value as the other shares. If the investor sells, he or she is paid the NAV. The amount of assets the fund manages has been reduced, but the NAV of outstanding shares has not changed because the shares redeemed were equal in value to all others.
With closed-end funds, the shares are traded in the open market and are consequently subject to demand/supply imbalances. They may trade at a price greater than their NAV (termed a premium) or at a price below the NAV (termed a discount). Read the rest of this entry »
All freely traded liquid markets share common traits related to psychological pressures (fear and greed), but each differs as to fundamental relationships, trading mechanisms, and structural factors. Each market’s individual characteristics must be understood. Once this understanding has been achieved, proper evaluation of similarities or differences, as well as interrelated pricing effects, with other markets can be accomplished.
One market that allows easy application of Drach’s common stock analysis is closed-end funds, also known as publicly traded funds or closed-end investment trusts (CEITs).
Although one of the oldest forms of investment, closed-end funds are among the most misunderstood and consequently often overlooked investment areas. Their origin can be traced back to the establishment of a Belgian fund in 1822; thereafter they flourished, particularly among English and Scottish investors in the latter 1800s. The first U.S. fund was formed in 1893 and, until the time of the stock market crash of 1929, closed-end funds were the dominant form of publically owned investment companies. Read the rest of this entry »
Management’s income is usually based on a percentage of the market value of the securities in the fund. The larger the asset base is, the greater the income. Both open- and closed-end fund managers are (at least theoretically) compensated to provide superior investment performance. If the value of the assets being managed grows, the management fees expand proportionately. In addition to pressures associated with performance, the open-end fund manager is faced with problems that can arise form variable capitalization.
Statistically, there is virtually no question that the popularity of both closed-end and open-end funds varies with market conditions. When the market is high, especially during periods of excessive speculation, open- end mutual fund sales increase (sometimes very dramatically), and there is an increase in the number of new closed-end funds. When the market is depressed, open-end sales decline (sometimes redemptions dominate), and there are few new closed-end funds formed. Read the rest of this entry »
In determining which specific closed-end fund provides the best buying opportunity, it might appear that the process is exceptionally simple: Just see which one is selling at the widest discount and buy it.
Unfortunately, the process is a bit more complicated. As previously discussed, there are valid reasons for discounts. There is also a wide variety of fund types: equity (stocks in general or in industrial sectors), bonds (different types, such as municipal, corporate, foreign, or U.S. government; all with varying maturities), convertible bonds (combining both bond and stock characteristics), specialty (confining interest to a specific country, a very narrow industry sector, venture capital, or specific private placements), dual-purpose (where the fund seeks both capital gains and income), or anything else that can generate public interest and enough sales to capitalize the fund. Read the rest of this entry »
Since almost all closed-end funds tend to sell at a discount, it can appear obvious that there is no reason to purchase closed-end funds when they are selling at a premium. Sometimes a special feature, for example, a closed-end fund having a private placement in its portfolio which is about to go public as a hot issue, may justify purchase at a premium. Otherwise, it is difficult to make a case for paying a price higher than NAV.
Central to the advantages of closed-end funds is the discount; both as to dividends and as to pricing variances. Read the rest of this entry »
A primary reason for discounts is a lack of sponsorship. If a securities salesperson (dependent on commissions) has a choice of selling someone an existing closed-end fund (say at a regular stock commission of around 1 percent) or a load mutual fund with a sales charge (that can be as much as 8 percent), the incentive is to direct “investors” to the open-end fund.
The incentives associated with higher sales charges can be easily observed when new closed-end funds are issued. In new issues, compensation is by underwriting fees. A typical fee is 7 to 8 percent. If a fund was coming public at $10 per share, an 8-percent underwriting fee would be 80 cents per share. Read the rest of this entry »
The ease of adapting Drach’s methods to closed-end funds is based on the similarity of scanning for relative discounting. The essence of the timing technique is to attempt to expand common stock investment when the overall market is relatively low, confining investment interest to stocks that qualify for the Master List, which appear relatively discounted to the others.
Scanning for the most appropriate closed-end fund based on discounts has the same objective: isolating the cheapest. In Drach’s objectives, he is searching for specific stocks that are overly discounted. In Herzfeld’s closed-end fund analysis, he is searching for the most discounted fund. The focus of both techniques is to isolate excessive discounts relative to historical/statistical norms.
A significant differential between Drach’s concentration on specific stock and Herzfeld’s concentration on specific funds is that the funds, by their structure, involve diversity in the number of different positions. Read the rest of this entry »
In both the primary and many of the ancillary criteria that determine buy/sell signals, interest rate projections play an important role. Whenstocks are priced at reasonable or discounted levels relative to historical fundamental norms, lowering interest rates can have a strong positive effect. Conversely, especially when stocks are overvalued relative to fundamentals, higher interest rates can be shown to have a very negative effecton stock pricing.
The effect on bonds (and bond funds) resulting from interest rate changes are more straightforward than stock pricing relationships because the effect on stocks at any given time depends on stock price levels. The effect on bonds is direct: Lower rates create higher bond prices, and higher rates result in lower bond prices. The effect of rate changes on bond prices can be more dramatic than many investors realize, with the greater price shifts associated with longer maturities. Read the rest of this entry »
In the published common stock portfolio modeling the Continuous Full Investment portfolio models were included to function as a control to allow objective comparisons with the market timing models.
Although intended as a control, allowing demonstration of the validity of the timing technique, the Continuous Models have significantly outperformed the broadly based popularized market averages. The reasons for this superior performance are twofold. First, the rigid requirements for stocks to qualify for the Master List results in the stocks comprising the Continuous Models to be of usually superior fundamental quality, thereby giving the group an upward bias relative to the overall market. Second, the Continuous Models change positions in a gradual, relatively slow process in which new positions are selected that are among the most discounted (low-priced relative to the others) on the list. In effect, a rotational process adds those that have become more discounted and deletes those less discounted. Read the rest of this entry »
Two things must be kept in mind when establishing a long position in this kind of hedge. First, since Treasury bond futures contractsrepresent face value of $100,000 worth of Treasury bonds, the investor will want to go long approximately $100,000 worth of closed-end bondfunds. When it comes to trading closed-end bond funds, I do not recommend buying more than 2000 or 3000 shares of a single fund for a short-term trade. That is why we would go long several different closed-end funds, representing positions of from $31,000 to $34,000 and amounting to approximately $100,000. That $100,000 long position offset the short position of 1 September U.S. Treasury bond futures contract at 100.18, priced at a 7.943 yield.
On February 10, 1978, with the Dow Jones Bond Average down to 89.79, two significant changes had taken place since we established our theoretical long and short positions: (1) The long positions in the bond funds had become profitable, and (2) so had the short position in the Treasury bond futures contract. For example, JHS was selling at 175/8, up from 167A; DBF was up to 165/8 from 161/2; and PAI had gone from 135/8 to 1334. The net asset values of all three funds had declined but the discounts, as predicted, narrowed more than the decline in net asset values, resulting in the profits. Read the rest of this entry »
In the common stock investment techniques, the most obvious hedging strategy might be to be long the stocks that are relatively discounted and sell short those that appear most overpriced. However, the process is not so simple.
Because of the composition of the Master List, the stocks as a group tend to do significantly better than the market as a whole. Consequently, although the long positions have significantly outperformed the broadly based market, the short positions, if sold, will likely provide lesser returns than the overall market.
It is because of the Master List’s positive bias that in hedging accounts Drach utilizes writing index call options as a substitute for the short side. This substitution both eliminates the effect of the Master List’s upside bias that would be experienced in attempting to short Master List stocks and provides added profitability for the short side because of premium capture. As discussed in Chap. 9, the method of going long the selected Master List issues and proportionately shorting (selling) index call options is a lethargic process, which has so far produced a constant annualized return of about 15 percent irrespective of overall market conditions. Read the rest of this entry »
Currency swap: Contract that commits two counterparties to exchange streams of interest payments in different currencies for an agreed period of time and to exchange principal amounts in different currencies at a pre-agreed exchange rate at maturity.
A currency swap has three stages:
An initial exchange of principal: the two counterparties exchange principal amounts at an agreed exchange rate. This can be a notional exchange since its purpose is to establish the principal amounts as a reference point for the calculation of interest payments and the re-exchange of the principal amounts.
Exchange of interest payments on agreed dates based on outstanding principal amounts and agreed fixed interest rates.
- Re-exchange of the principal amounts at a predetermined exchange rate so the parties end up with their original currencies.
- Again this may be done to hedge risk, to speculate on changes in exchange rates, or to attempt to lower the cost of borrowing by borrowing in the currency in which the most favourable interest rates are available and then swapping into the currency that the firm needs to carry out its business. Whether this will be cheaper will depend among other things on the bid—offer spread.
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A eurobond is a debt security handled internationally by syndicates, groups of bankers and/or brokers who underwrite and distribute new issues of securities or large blocks of outstanding issues. It is typically in bearer (non-registered form) and is issued outside the country of the currency in which it is denominated.
Borrowers and lenders are spread around the world, while the intermediaries are spread across Europe, with the majority of business being done from London. The market was founded in the early 1960s and has provided a competitive source of funding for borrowers who can tap discreet but important sources of finance. Japanese banks, pension funds and insurance companies have become important lenders in recent years and there are still plenty of wealthy individuals who prefer the anonymity offered by bearer securities. The eurobond market is the world’s second largest securities market after the US bond market in terms of trading volume and the third largest after the US and Japanese bond markets in terms of debt outstanding. Read the rest of this entry »
A major defence industry supplier, Death Mines plc, wishes to borrow £1 million for twelve years at a fixed interest rate to finance a new investment project. It could do so by issuing a straight eurobond but, as it is not well known in the market and does not have a high credit risk rating, would have to pay a coupon of 8 per cent which it regards as too high. The firm’s own bank is willing to lend Death Mines the required amount via a one-year floating rate note at a rate of 2 per cent over LIBOR, currently at 3.6 per cent.
Clearly, the floating rate loan is much cheaper at the moment, but LIBOR could easily rise over the period of the loan to such a level that Death Mines would finish up losing on the project. Thus, it enters into a contract with a swap bank, Border International, to pay to it 5 per cent on the principal, receiving in exchange LIBOR.
The position of Death Mines now is:
Pays to its own bank LIBOR + 2 per cent
Pays to Border 5 per cent
Receives from Border LIBOR
Net position — fixed rate loan at 7 per cent Read the rest of this entry »
The trade press within the industry where the commodity is important fans the fires of demand. Insiders begin to speculate. Word spreads to the financial community and press quickly. Sooner or later, the mass media carries a story. That’s when the average investor bids for a piece of the action, which usually signals a blow-off top. Prices crash.
At several points along the rocky road from bust to boom and back again, excellent trading opportunities present themselves. A technical trader watching a flat or stagnant price chart notices a slight uptrend. Perhaps the long-term downtrend line drawn earlier on the chart was penetrated. Or it might be a fundamental trader with informed contacts within the industry in question who hears talk of shortages, sees inventories decline, or notices price movements. This stimulates him or her to call some distributors, check import-export data, shipments, etc.—all the links in the chain from production to end use. Read the rest of this entry »
You need to be concerned with the psychological aspects of investing in a managed futures program from two distinct points of view. First, what type of investment best meets your needs? And second, if you’re going to personally interview and select a CTA, what psychological characteristics should you be looking for?
The type of futures investment you are suited for depends on your attitude toward risk. If you are an aggressive risk-taker, you might be looking for an emerging CTA with a short, but incredible, track record. A moderate risk-taker might select a seasoned trader with a five- to ten-year track record in the moderate volatility range. Safety-conscious investors prefer to define their maximum risk in advance. They look for limited partnerships and “guaranteed” funds. We’ll have a discussion of the various types of offerings later in this text. Read the rest of this entry »
A group of 10 investors decide to form a limited partnership to trade futures, but none of them has the time or experience to act as general partner (GP). Nor does anyone want to assume the unlimited risk that falls on the shoulders of the GP. They take this challenge to a commodity pool operator (CPO).
A CPO is an individual, corporation, or organization in the business of operating and promoting commodity pools. On occasion, a CTA can also be a CPO who promotes his or her own trading programs. In this case, our investors seek a CPO independent of CTAs. They take this approach to get an unbiased analysis of potential traders. Read the rest of this entry »
There are a few other sticky wickets, or Macro-Disqualifiers fund administrators must negotiate. For example, a fiduciary must’ act solely in the interest of participants and beneficiaries and keep expenses to the minimum. Additionally, the fiduciary is prohibited from self-dealing, acting as a party with a competing or adverse interest in the plan, and receiving any compensation from any other party other than the plan. In other words, neither the FCM nor the trading manager should be named as a fiduciary. Both of these entities are expected to cross-trade (represent both sides of a futures trade by brokering for customers who are long and others short), work on an incentive fee basis (a conflict of interest with the pension fund), and provide a variety of services with compensation from multiple sources—all in the normal course of one business day. Read the rest of this entry »
For the fourth scenario, we chose a qualified pension plan for the following reasons:
- A lot of very well-known companies are adding managed futures to their investment portfolios for the reasons already documented in this book, particularly because they can often increase the overall return while reducing risk. For example, some of the corporations currently using managed futures are Intel, Libby Owens Ford, Weyerhauser, World Bank, and Virginia Supplemental Retirement System.
- These plans are highly regulated by the Department of Labor, IRS, SEC, CFTC, and state banking, insurance, and securities agencies. All these organizations scrutinize the investment practices of these plans for the protection of the employees who invest. If managed futures can pass the muster of all this regulatory oversight, there must be something worth consideration for just about every serious investor.
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